Weekly Market Review - July 24, 2018

Chad Hassinger |
Categories
Tax Planning

By Bradley J. Rathe, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer

July 24, 2018

"Time is an illusion, timing is an art." Stephan Emunds

Weekly look back:
  1. Industrial production snapped back from a weak number last month.  Auto production strength is showing up in many of the macro data series.
  2. Retail Sales data was released last week and showed continued strength that started last month.  Prior to the recent data retail data was underwhelming.  Restaurant sales led the gains.
  3. Interest rates had been falling the past few months until the end of last week as fixed income markets were spooked by the growing concern on inflation as the long end of the curve advanced as it is most sensitive to inflationary pressures.
Weekly look ahead:
  1. GDP expectations are elevated for the second quarter as it anticipated being above a 4% growth number.  Consumer spending and a narrowing of the export deficit numbers are the major factors.
  2. International Trade numbers are going to be in focus going forward and especially trade balances with China and Europe as trade war rhetoric continues to escalate.
  3. The housing numbers have been surprisingly weak recently.  Part of the issue has been a lack of supply.  This week we will see new home sales and see if the weak trend is bottoming.
World Macro highlights for this week: 

Wednesday: New Home Sales
Thursday: Durable Goods, International Trade
Friday: GDP, Consumer Sentiment

2018 Yearly Index Returns as of 7/20/2018

S&P 500 

5.73%

Europe Equity

-1.01%

Emerging Equity

-5.76%

US 10 Yr

+.54 bp

US Small Cap Stocks

11.17%

 

Graph Of The Week

GDP growth is expected to gap higher. The main concern will be how much inflation pressures start to come through on wages. 

 

Unless otherwise expressly indicated, the opinions or views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not reflect, and may differ from, the opinions or views of Strategic Financial Group, LLC or others within Strategic Financial Group, LLC, including its officers, managers, owners, employees or other service providers.