Weekly Market Review - June 7, 2019
By Bradley J. Rathe, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
June 7, 2019
"Summer afternoon - summer afternoon; to me those have always been the two most beautiful words in the English language." -Henry James
Weekly look back:
- Interest rate yields have fallen this year by more than 60 basis points in the US Ten year, more than a 20% fall in yields. Expectations are now for at least two interest rates cuts by the FOMC by year end.
- US GDP reported a strong 3.1% growth for Q1, however, May's equity performance was down because of the threat of tariffs on China and on Mexico.
- Sentiment has fallen off, as tariff talks have escalated on multiple fronts. Additionally, and more concerning, is the rise of inflation expectations as a result of tariffs, but the actual inflation readings currently still continue to be low.
Weekly look ahead:
- Jobs data on Friday and 180k is expected with strong wage growth. We are having one of the strongest job markets in the past 50 years with reasonable wage growth, as well.
- International trade and tariffs are still the crucial news that are driving price volatility. International trade has been falling, as trade talks drag on.
- Fed balance sheet is back down to 3.8 trillion, after peaking at 4.5 trillion. The inverted curve is all the talk, with a potential Fed interest rate reduction in September.
World Macro highlights for this week:
Wednesday: ISM Services
Thursday: International Trade, Productivity and Costs, Fed Balance Sheet
Friday: US Employment, Consumer Credit
2019 Yearly Index Returns as of 5/31/2019
US 10 Yr
US Small Cap Stocks
Graph Of The Week
International trade is front and center currently with all the tariff talk. Many factors go into trade and the current dollar strength is a major factor for attracting more imports.
Unless otherwise expressly indicated, the opinions or views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not reflect, and may differ from, the opinions or views of Strategic Financial Group, LLC or others within Strategic Financial Group, LLC, including its officers, managers, owners, employees or other service providers.