Weekly Market Review - March 20, 2018

Chad Hassinger |

By Bradley J. Rathe
Chief Investment Officer

March 20, 2018

“If you kick the person in the pants responsible for most of your trouble, you wouldn't sit for a month." Theodore Roosevelt

Weekly look back:
  1. Inflation data reported as anticipated and this calmed the markets. We still feel the Federal Reserve will raise rates this week however data should support them giving more of a dovish tone at the scheduled meeting this week.
  2. Consumer sentiment is running at a 14 year high. Trump satisfaction numbers are up, yet the odds of Democrats winning fall elections to win the House of Representatives went up as well.
  3. The big tax cut has not been passed onto the nation's retailers as retail sales continue to sag. Department store sales were especially weak, conversely building materials showed strength. 
Weekly look ahead:
  1. FOMC meeting on Wednesday is expected to have the Fed Funds increase by .25% to 1.625% with expectations of 2 more rate rises to get the rate to 2.125% by the end of the year. Bank of England is expected not to raise rates this week at their meeting as Brexit talks start to show clarity.
  2. Durable Goods reported soft last month but are expected to bounce back this month as transportation sales, the largest part of this number, are anticipated to advance.
  3. Sales of new home surged at the end of last year and confidence is high for a surge higher this month to 620k even as mortgage rates continue to move higher.  
World Macro highlights for this week: 

Wednesday: FOMC meeting with Announcement and Forecasts
Thursday: LEI (Leading Economic Indicators), Fed Balance Sheet
Friday: Durable Goods, New Home Sales

Graph Of The Week

Expectations are for 3 interest rate increases this year but if inflation does not pick up or we start to see the economy slow there will be less. 

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Unless otherwise expressly indicated, the opinions or views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not reflect, and may differ from, the opinions or views of Strategic Financial Group, LLC or others within Strategic Financial Group, LLC, including its officers, managers, owners, employees or other service providers.