Weekly Market Review - November 15, 2018

Weekly Market Review - November 15, 2018

by Chad Hassinger on Nov 15, 2018

Finance

By Bradley J. Rathe, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer

"He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever." Chinese Proverb

Weekly look back:
  1. Mid-term elections created a divided government with the House going to the Democrats and the Senate staying with the Republicans.  The stock market cheered that it was finally over.
  2. Producer Inflation (PPI) surged above expectations with year over year attaining critical levels of 2.9%.  We don't see this changing the Federal Reserve direction on rates.  Additionally, with Crude oil falling more than 20% future readings will be more moderate.
  3. Service numbers, the biggest part of the economy, have surpassed expectations recently.  Both the ISM Services and the PMI Services have had strong readings.
Weekly look ahead:
  1. Bringing back manufacturing to the US is a pillar of the administration's policy and industrial production numbers this week are expect to be strong.
  2. Last week the FOMC did not raise rates but expectations are high for a rate rise in December.  This week the regional Federal Reserve surveys are released and should give us a good look at the state of the economy.
  3. Consumer prices (CPI) are not expected to be as hot as PPI was last week and surprisingly Import and Exports are expected to be flat.  Falling Energy prices will play a major role in future inflation readings.
World Macro highlights for this week: 

Wednesday: CPI (Consumer Inflation)
Thursday: Retail Sales, Philly Fed Survey, Empire State Survey, Import and Export Prices
Friday: Industrial Production

2018 Yearly Index Returns as of 11/09/2018

S&P 500 

5.56%

Europe Equity

-10.12%

Emerging Equity

-14.58%

US 10 Yr

+.79 bp

US Small Cap Stocks

1.94%

 

Graph Of The Week

Retail sales are expected to have a strong end to the year as incomes have been strong and Santa is expected to be nice this year.

Thumbnail