Weekly Market Review - November 15, 2018
by Chad Hassinger on Nov 15, 2018
By Bradley J. Rathe, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
"He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever." Chinese Proverb
Weekly look back:
- Mid-term elections created a divided government with the House going to the Democrats and the Senate staying with the Republicans. The stock market cheered that it was finally over.
- Producer Inflation (PPI) surged above expectations with year over year attaining critical levels of 2.9%. We don't see this changing the Federal Reserve direction on rates. Additionally, with Crude oil falling more than 20% future readings will be more moderate.
- Service numbers, the biggest part of the economy, have surpassed expectations recently. Both the ISM Services and the PMI Services have had strong readings.
Weekly look ahead:
- Bringing back manufacturing to the US is a pillar of the administration's policy and industrial production numbers this week are expect to be strong.
- Last week the FOMC did not raise rates but expectations are high for a rate rise in December. This week the regional Federal Reserve surveys are released and should give us a good look at the state of the economy.
- Consumer prices (CPI) are not expected to be as hot as PPI was last week and surprisingly Import and Exports are expected to be flat. Falling Energy prices will play a major role in future inflation readings.
World Macro highlights for this week:
Wednesday: CPI (Consumer Inflation)
Thursday: Retail Sales, Philly Fed Survey, Empire State Survey, Import and Export Prices
Friday: Industrial Production
2018 Yearly Index Returns as of 11/09/2018
US 10 Yr
US Small Cap Stocks
Graph Of The Week
Retail sales are expected to have a strong end to the year as incomes have been strong and Santa is expected to be nice this year.